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Vietnam has projected 2003 rice exports to reach at
least 3.5 million tons. By September 1 the exported
bulk had reached 2.8 million tons. Noting this, export
projections have risen to 3.9 million ton.For the past
14 years, the Mekong Delta has been the granary regulating
the country's rice demand and the source of exported
rice.
Winter-spring crop - the main source of export rice.
The region produces three annual harvests. The winter-spring
crop has the highest yield-5.6 tons/hectare for a total
of 8.5 million tons-and the best quality paddy, which
is suitable for milling into good grade rice for export.
The summer-fall crop is cultivated on an area of about
1.9 million hectares, but erratic weather conditions
and floods cause the average yield to be just under
4 tons/ha/crop with a total of 7.5 million tons. The
least effective harvest is cultivated on about 402,500ha
with an average paddy yield of 3.67 tons/ha, total output
being about 1.47 million tons.
Thus, the total paddy yield of the Mekong Delta reaches
17.5 million tons per year. Of this, 10.5 million tons
satisfy domestic demand. The remaining seven million
tons, equivalent to 3.5-3.8 million tons of rice (milling
ratio is 50% to 55%) are earmarked for export.*
Export in the last four months of 2003
Compiling data from all Mekong Delta provinces, the
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)
stated that the 2003 paddy yield would be just about
that of 2002; with negligible increase, if any.
Compared to this period in 2002, there has been an increase
of 600,000 tons of export rice in 2003. At present,
contracts signed for post-August 2003 delivery stand
at 300,000 tons. Compared to 2002, the situation looks
positive, with increased market shares due to the competitive
prices offered.
On account of the above-mentioned factors, several relevant
departments have suggested raising the year's export
projection to 3.9 million tons. However, according to
experts, trading companies should simply follow the
market and limit export contracts at 600,000 to 700,000
tons for the last four months. Basically, the spring-summer
and summer-fall crops have been harvested, especially
in the low-lying Dong Thap Muoi areas (Dong Thap, Long
An, An Giang and part of Kien Giang). However, the lower
average yield of the 2003 summer-fall crop would affect
the total annual output and balance any overall increase,
if any. The volume of rice reserved for export would
therefore be 3.6 million tons. On the other hand, the
annual floods have not come as early as in the previous
three years. Should there be no sudden change in the
flood conditions from now until October 2003, the 2003-2004
winter-spring crop would not be as good as in the past
few years. In the Mekong Delta, a good winter-spring
crop has always followed the floods of the previous
year. The waters deposit a great volume of silt on the
flooded areas and rid the fields of rodents. With or
without significant floods, the production cost of the
winter-spring 2004 crop will be higher than usual but
the yield may not be as high.
As analyzed, the maximum rice export volume in the remaining
four months of 2003 should be about 800,000 to 900,000
tons, enough to boost the total volume to 3.6 - 3.7
million tons for 2003. National food security is therefore
assured; the required surplus is reserved for the first
quarter of 2004.
AgroViet
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